Statistics at a Glance
Portland Cement Consumption |
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Masonry Cement Consumption |
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Cement & Clinker Imports |
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| Mortgage Rates |
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Housing Starts
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Nonresidential Construction
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| Public Construction |
Apr 08 |
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Market Performance
Industry Data
U.S. Market Pulse
Canadian Market Pulse
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Forecasts & Analysis:
Web Cast
Cement Outlook: 2008
The latest Portland Cement Association forecast of cement, concrete, and construction predicts a 12 percent decline in cement consumption in 2008, followed by another 6 percent drop in 2009.
Listen to PCA Chief Economist Ed Sullivan's Webcast of his outlook for 2008 and beyond.
U.S. Forecast, Spring 2008
We are in a recession. Despite assurances from many economists, PCA does not believe the recession’s impact on cement consumption will be mild. In total, PCA expects peak-to-trough declines will total nearly 30 million metric tons – marking it as one of the worst industry downturns in the post-WWII era.
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Long-Term Cement Consumption Outlook – 2008
Portland cement consumption is expected to grow 43% by 2030, reaching 183 million metric tons
and reflecting a 55 million metric ton increase comparable to 2005’s past cyclical peak level.
PCA expects the combination of sustained moderate economic and population growth will fuel
this increase.
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Canadian Forecast, Spring 2008
The economic fundamentals of employment, wage growth, and a healthy consumer sector are expected to cushion against the external downside pressures that are emerging. Economic expectations have been reduced; however, PCA does not expect the Canadian economy will slip into recession. Forecast risks include the U.S. recession, a debt laden Canadian consumer, and the danger of falling commodity prices.
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State Forecasts
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Flash Reports:
Housing Holding to PCA’s Dismal Outlook, June 30, 2008
The residential sector will act as a significant drag on cement consumption during 2008. PCA expects cement consumption will decline by 12.1 million metric tons during 2008. Roughly half of that decline is attributed to continued weakness in single family construction (6.2 million metric tons).
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Green Building and Highway Requirements: National Perspective, May 7, 2008
During the past 25 years, investment in highways and roads has not kept pace with demographic changes. Lack of investment in highways has led to increased traffic congestion, wasted fuel, higher CO 2 emissions, wasted time and increased logistical costs to the detriment of economic growth. Ongoing demographic changes during the next 25 years will bring even more pressure on the highway infrastructure. Lacking accelerated investment in highways, traffic congestion will worsen leading to increases in wasted fuel, CO 2 emissions, wasted time and to overall cost to the nation’s economy
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Capacity Expansion Update, April 30, 2008
The cement industry is currently engaged in an aggressive $6 billion capacity expansion. More than 4 million metric tons of new clinker capacity is expected to come on-line this year. An additional 10 million metric tons of new clinker capacity is expected to come on-line during 2009. The capacity expansion coincides with the onset of an economic recession. Imbalances are expected to characterize the market during the next three years, resulting in elevated inventories, import reductions, prolonged maintenance downtimes, lower kiln utilization rates, the accelerated retirement of wet kilns, and potentially the postponement or delay in planned commissioning dates for new plants.
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Residential Outlook: Recession Risks, Feb. 22, 2008
The United States
cement industry has announced plans to increase clinker capacity by nearly 25 million
metric tons between 2007 and 2012.
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Florida’s Cement Outlook: Recession Risks, Feb. 7, 2008
Already grim market conditions facing Florida’s cement market may worsen in 2008 and 2009. PCA believes that Florida’s economy has already entered a recession, or soon will. The housing crisis and general economic slowdown is expected to spread to nonresidential and public construction in 2008 and 2009 – adversely affecting cement consumption.
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